Tweet Tweet

by Don Harkey

Fear is a pretty "heavy" topic, so I thought I'd end the week with something a little on the light side.

Have you used Twitter? If you are reading this blog, you obviously have enough internet "chops" to find and follow a blog. If you are using Twitter, skip to the next paragraph. Twitter is basically a "microblog". People post short updates regularly and publicly. Some post information on what they are doing. Others post jokes. Others put links to useful (or not) websites. You can search the posts (called "tweets") for content or you can choose to follow specific people whose posts you find interesting. It's pretty simple, but the implications are amazing.

Twitter delivers a different and "more pure" level of social networking. Rather than limiting you to a set of "friends" like Facebook, Twitter allows you to interact within a community of people simply looking for information. I've only been on for a week now, and I have already found (or been found by) users who have connected me with video on how to string a guitar (from Rainn Wilson - "Dwight" from "The Office"), lots of information on writing blogs (from bloggers_guide - very useful and helpful), and connected with new resources from the Springfield Business Journal (from deedee_jacobs).

The best part is that it doesn't take a lot of time. Twitter allows you to "tweet" from your phone through a simple text message and the information is easy to access. There isn't all of the bells and whistles associated with Facebook. Sure bells and whistles can be fun, but they can also make that clock move incredibly fast!

I think the most exciting part of Twitter is that I am still finding applications for this new (to me) tool. This is truly a new way for our society to function. It carries lots of benefits and some potential dangers, but it is an extremely powerful tool for anyone who wants to find 3 people to play golf with on a Friday morning or for someone who just needs some advice on how to write a better blog.

Whether you are new or old to Twitter, you can visit my profile and follow me on http://twitter.com/donharkey. Enjoy your weekend! Next week's topic, Nonprofits!

Hope?

by Don Harkey

"The middle class needs a rescue package."
- Barack Obama, October 7, 2008

The book "Outliers", by Malcolm Gladwell, outlines a study that shows a single difference in parenting styles that will greatly improve or reduce a child's chances of becoming successful later in life. The study showed that parents who teach their children not to question authority and accept their place in society tend to have kids who grow up to be passive and struggle through life. In contrast, parents who teach their children to question authority and take personal responsibility for their successes (and failures) have children who grow up to enjoy life.

There are really only 2 responses to a challenging climate. A person can wait it out and "hope" that it goes away or a person can "do" what they can to navigate through the challenges. Unfortunately, the current administration is trying to teach the American people to "hope" that the government will act in their best interest to "save" them. Whether or not you believe that the economic policy of the United States will help or hurt the current economic situation, everyone should believe that the ultimate solutions will lie with the actions and innovation of the people of our great country.

Those who have come to believe that our choice lies with either fear or hope have forgotten the true value of the gifts God has bestowed upon humanity. Every day I meet people who are creating, searching for ways to add value, working together in a free market, and who are looking toward to the future. These are times of great opportunity.

In the long term, it doesn't matter what the government does as long we remain free. We will continue to rise up to the challenges ahead of us and ask our Creator to enlighten us with our true Purpose in this world. There is a lot of good news out there, but none better than the fact that there are still many of us who carry great passions and enthusiasm for this gift of life. It's not about fear and it's not about hope. It's not about tax policies, bailouts, or government. It's about you and I and our Creator.

I know many of us are struggling today. I know that many have lost their jobs, their investments and seemingly their future. It is natural to feel fear in these times. During these times we must scratch and claw and struggle our way back. We must get smarter, more disciplined, more passionate, and more focused. While the struggle will be difficult, we will come out much stronger as a result... and it won't be because of a donkey or an elephant! We must accept the blame and we will be able enjoy the great glories that life brings!

"It is time for us to realize that we're too great a nation to limit ourselves to small dreams. We're not, as some would have us believe, doomed to an inevitable decline. I do not believe in a fate that will fall on us no matter what we do. I do believe in a fate that will fall on us if we do nothing. So, with all the creative energy at our command, let us begin an era of national renewal. Let us renew our determination, our courage, and our strength. And let us renew our faith and our hope. We have every right to dream heroic dreams. Those who say that we're in a time when there are no heroes, they just don't know where to look."
- Ronald Reagan, 1981

The Big Picture - Innovation vs Fear

by Gene O'Dell
Financial Advisor
gene.odell@wachoviasec.com

Since the beginning of our time here on earth, our society continually becomes more intellectually sophisticated than the prior year, or years, before. This sophistication creates innovation and this innovation breeds even more ideas and real world items that are far more sophisticated than the ones that came before them. Some cultures take longer than others, but I am sure you understand where I am going with this.

While our economy is down and we all feel beaten up, I do not think we are down for the count. Frame it this way, do you believe that, in five years, there will be a new cell phone available for sale (which will have more features than most of us will ever use)? What about cars with sophisticated navigation systems (regardless of brand)? Will the medical field continue to be safer, faster, and better than it was five years prior?

In my mind, one of two things will happen in the next five years: We will continue to be an innovative planet and we will get out of this mess in a surprising fashion or some of us, hopefully all, will be in a much better place where money won’t matter. I’m prepared for the worst-case scenario and am staying the course with my investments. If you are confused about what I mean about being in a better place, call me and I’ll explain. Now, I believe in our society, our culture, and our ability to continue our intellectual growth process that is inherent in all of us.

We will continue to innovate and as with investing, be part owners in the businesses that grow. The old saying is, “it’s better to be an owner than a loaner.”

It is important to understand that in economics, the market is a forward looking indicator. As I’ve discussed before, it looks out in advance, in hopes of pricing in the future. With that said, I still feel, and so do the market prognosticators, that the stock market will show signs of recovery in 3rd and 4th quarter. That’s certainly where we are today, even though it may not feel like it.

Economic news, however, will likely continue to sound worse and, as a natural result, we will likely feel worse about the economy. Unemployment will likely get worse over this next year, but consider this; unemployment is a lagging economic indicator. You don’t terminate someone’s employment until after business has slowed, not before. Generally in bear markets, the news gets worse and the market gets better all at the same time. Sounds crazy, but keep the right frame of mind about how this whole market works.

I hope you find this to be informative and I hope you and your family are well. As always, if I may be of service to you, please call me directly or email me. I know times are tough and I also know that perseverance pays off. I am here if you need me, and if you know someone who needs to see this, please pass it on.

What is Going Right?

by Michael Vaughn, Certified Financial Planner
The Mutual Fund Store

With all of the negative press over the past year regarding the economy, I’m sure you may be thinking, “will things ever get better?”

It can be a depressing time to watch the news and read the headlines. Up to this point, I think it is important for all of us to step back and see the entire picture.

Is there any good news? Here is some that you probably haven’t seen.

AT&T to bring back 4,000 outsourced support center jobs from overseas.

KIA, the auto company, is hiring 600 workers for their plant in Lagrange, GA.

Microsoft Corp announced plans to open its own chain of branded stores as it looks to catch up with rival Apple Inc's successful move into retailing.

Intel Corp plans to invest $7 billion over the next two years to build advanced manufacturing facilities in the United States that make faster, smaller chips that consume less energy. The announcement comes less than a month after the world's largest maker of microprocessors used in personal computers said it would close
plants in Southeast Asia and scale back U.S. operations under a restructuring
that affects as many as 6,000 employees.

Panera Bread Co., the chain of 1,250 bakery-cafes, plans to take advantage of its debt-free balance sheet and the U.S. real estate slump to open as many as two locations a week in 2009, said Chief Executive Ronald Shaich.

Allegiant Airlines has announced 25 new routes since August and plans to increase its capacity 21% in the second quarter, not including the buildup of service to Los Angeles International Airport from a dozen communities it already serves. The airline carried 3.9 million scheduled passengers last year, up 29% from 2007, and flies its planes about 90% full.

The U.S. by far remains the world's leading manufacturer by value of goods produced. It hit a record $1.6 trillion in 2007... nearly double the $811 billion in 1987. For every $1 of value produced in China's factories, America generates $2.50. - article by Stephen Manning, Associated Press

America makes things that other countries can't. Today, "Made in USA" is more likely to be stamped on heavy equipment or the on circuits that go inside other products than the TVs, toys, clothes and other items found on store shelves. U.S. companies have shifted toward high-end manufacturing as the production of low-value goods moves overseas. This has resulted in lower prices for shoppers and higher profits for companies.

When demand slumps, all types of manufacturing jobs are lost. Some higher-end jobs -- but not all -- return with good times. Workers who make goods more cheaply produced overseas suffer.

Once this recession runs its course, surviving manufacturers will emerge more efficient and profitable, economists say. More valuable products will be made using fewer people. Products will be made where labor and other costs are cheaper. And manufacturers will focus on the most lucrative products.

The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

by Don Harkey

I must admit that I have been watching the news from time to time, despite my frequent advice to others not to. It is depressing. It makes my neck tense up. It sounds dire. There is certainly no shortage of fear.

What is fear? What is its impact? How does it impact our outlook, our decisions, our ability to choose or look to the future?

I have invited 2 financial advisors to write for the blog this week. Michael Vaughn is a Certified Financial Planner with the Mutual Fund Store. Gene O'Dell is a financial advisor in Springfield, Missouri. Both are good honest professionals who live everyday watching the markets and see the fear first hand.

Are we doomed? Should we dig a hole and hunker down?

Let's discuss!