Fumble!

by Don Harkey

I love college football, so when I get to use college football in an example, I get excited... even when it is a painful example.

This weekend, my alma mater, the University of Nebraska played the Iowa State Cyclones in Lincoln. Iowa State had lost their previous 15 Big 12 away games and hadn't beaten Nebraska in Lincoln since 1977. Their starting QB and starting RB were both out with injuries sustained during the week. Nebraska came in after a painful home loss to Texas Tech the week before, but still feeling optimistic about the season.

Only 16 seconds into the game, Nebraska fumbled the ball and Iowa State recovered. The Blackshirts held, but Iowa State kicked a field goal (after gaining 4 yards on the drive... yes, that's 4 yards and 3 points). The day only got worse as Nebraska managed to move the ball for the most part, but kept turning the ball over. Iowa State played gutsy football scoring their only touchdown after a fake punt and a bomb to the endzone.

The final stats were some of the most unusual I have ever seen in football (at any level). At the end of the game, Nebraska had 8 turnovers and Iowa State had none. The final score was Iowa State 9, Nebraska 7 (remarkable in itself that it was that close). Perhaps even more remarkable was that Nebraska had 4 turnovers inside the "red zone" (less than 20 yards from the endzone) and 3 turnovers less than 5 yards from the endzone! Nebraska has a great field goal kicker, so if they had the opportunity to kick those field goals, they would have won 19 to 9.

What causes this "outlier"? The NCAA record for turnovers is 13 by Georgia in 1951. 8 is a new school record for Nebraska and the -8 turnover margin is unbelievable. Only 23 teams (out of 119) in 2008 had a worse turnover margin for the entire season!

If I could explain this outlier, I would fly to Lincoln and help Coach Pelini make the proper adjustments (or comfort him with the information that the planets were just aligned wrong on Saturday). The point I want to make here is that we can often learn a lot from these types of strange situations as they often point to something significant. It is tempting to chalk this one up to bad luck, but the number is so staggeringly "off" that it is probably not a wise decision.

When something really strange happens, your process might be trying to tell you something...