The End of Broadcasting

by Don Harkey

Broadcast television and radio will be obsolete within the next 20 years. This is my prediction. While this may seem unthinkable to many people, I believe it is inevitable. Here is my case...

I'm listening to the radio right now, but its not one of local stations. I am listening to Pandora (www.Pandora.com) on which I have customized a couple of different stations to play the types of music that I enjoy. All I had to do was plug in sample artists that I like and the station "learns" what type of music I like. Do I get less variety? Actually, I get a lot more. The site finds similar music by other artists and plays songs that are similar to those played by my favorite artists. Within any one station, it handles very well the fact that I like Billy Joel and the Red Hot Chili Peppers and covers both tastes well. I can tell the site when it plays a song I really like (or don't like) and it will continue to customize my station. I can even skip songs I don't like (up to 5 skips per hour).

It was only a few years ago when many people I knew partially scheduled their week around their favorite TV shows. I had friends who really wanted to get home on Thursday nights to watch "Friends" or Sunday night to watch "the Simpsons". Today, I never hear of people rushing home to watch their favorite program. Part of the change has come with the advent of the DVR, which can record your favorite programs without much input from you. For example, I like the old Twilight Zone shows. My DVR on my PC has picked up almost 100 different episodes on various channels over the last couple of months. I can watch them any time I want and it only takes me 20 minutes per half-hour episode because I can easily skip commercials.

What if I don't record that program that I like? No problem. When "the Office" was washed out by severe weather coverage a few weeks ago, I simply went to Hulu (www.hulu.com) and watched the episode from the internet.

There are 2 technology advances that will help push us over the threshold from broadcast to broadband. The first will be the advancement of technology to bring the internet to your TV's and radios throughout your house. This technology already exists (for example I can surf the internet on my TV using my Wii). In the near future, your home will be completely networked and connected. You'll have access to your songs and movies from programs such as iTunes and you can listen to customized stations and watch just about any TV show you want at any time.

The second big advancement will be when the speed of your internet connection approaches the processing speed of your computer. As processing speeds continue to increase, internet connection speeds are increasing faster. The internet connection on my iPhone is now faster than my home internet connection was only a few years ago.

While I'm not ready to predict the total demise of print newspapers, I do believe the industry has already been impacted by the internet and will continue to be impacted. Other than the Springfield Business Journal (www.sbj.net), I get all of my news information from the internet. Critics say that the information on the internet is often inaccurate. However, most of today's news surfers are smart enough to know that network and newspaper news sources are also slanted and often inaccurate. I have quick access to a variety of news sources and can judge for myself the value and accuracy of the information presented.

Blogs will continue to increase in popularity as people crave new sources of information. The most popular blogs will likely be those that provide specific and useful information to the readers. Those people who currently don't read blogs will likely be reading them within the next 5 years, simply because they will start to see the value.

This was a long introduction to get the spin for this week's theme. Where will companies advertise? If TV, radio, and newspapers are on the decline, how will companies get the word out to their customers? It is easy to say that they will go to the internet, but will it look the same?

As a marketing friend of mind told me recently, social media fans are fickle. If they sense someone trying to sell to them, they shut down immediately. If an internet TV site has too many commercials, another TV site will take over in popularity. If a popular blog utilizes too many pop-up adds, its popularity will suffer.

This week we will talk about blogging specifically and how companies and organizations can use the blogs to sell without using them to sell.